The Efficient Market Hypothesis, Price Multiples, And The German Stock Market

Abstract

One of the great exercises of financial research is to examine the efficiency of the stock markets. There are many reasons for this endeavor. One is due to the importance efficiency has on the allocation of capital and the impact on economic activity. Others center on the desire to find an exploitable anomaly for active investment management. This paper sought to do both. The paper explores the German stock market over a five year period ending December 31, 2007. The objective was to examine the value of price multiples in developing portfolios that would not only question the efficient market hypothesis for the market but provide an investment tool to achieve above market risk adjusted returns for an active investment style. The paper explored this by creating portfolios of (1) top ranked (low) price multiples and (2) bottom ranked (high) price multiples. Three multiples were chosen. These were (1) Price to Book (PBK); (2) Price to Current Earnings (PEC), and (3) Price to Normalized Earnings (PER). The hypotheses were that low price multiples would outperform, on a risk adjusted basis, high price multiples, and hedged (long/short) would likewise outperform the market on a risk adjusted basis. Support for either of these hypotheses questions the efficiency of the markets and could provide a pragmatic investment strategy. The results of the study suggest not only that the efficiency of the German stock market can be questioned but that a workable investment strategy involving price multiples could be implemented. The results noted that low price multiples outperformed high price multiples in all cases but not necessarily on a risk adjusted basis. Hedged portfolios likewise outperformed the universe and population. Hedged PBK had an Adjusted Sharpe Ratio of 0.50; the Hedged PEC had an Adjusted Sharpe Ratio of 0.30; and the Hedged PER had an Adjusted Sharpe Ratio of 0.23. These should be compared against an Adjusted Sharpe Ratio for the market of 0. Finally, an equally-weighted Hedged position of PBK, PEC, and PER had an Adjusted Sharpe Ratio of 0.44.