Consistent Conjectural Variations Equilibrium In A Bilevel Human Migration Model

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a bi-level human migration model using the concept of conjectural variations equilibrium (CVE). In contrast to previous works, here we construct a bi-level programming model. The upper level agents are municipalities of competing locations, whose strategies are investments into infrastructures of the locations (cities, towns, etc.). These investments aim at making the locations more attractive for both the residents and potential migrants from other locations. At the lower level of the model, the present residents (grouped into professional communities) are also considered as potential migrants to other locations. They make their decision where to migrate (if at all) comparing the expected values of the utility functions of the destinations and original locations, which are estimated by taking into account their group's conjectures concerning equilibrium migration flows between the involved locations. Applying a special technique to verify the consistency of the conjectures (influence coefficients), the existence and uniqueness results for the consistent conjectural variations equilibrium (CCVE) are established.