Prospective Analysis Of The World Lithium Market Contribution To The Evaluation Of Supply Shortage Periods

Abstract

Despite the availability a priori of lithium geological resources and an assurance from producers to raise their production capacity in the event of an increase in lithium demand, the French government is not reassured because the lithium world market in general and the French market in particular are not still shielded from a supply shortage. Indeed, due to political or environmental reasons, a possible supply restriction policy could be applied by producers. The present work aims to contribute to assessing possible shortage periods, if such scenarios occur. Our approach consists in carrying out a prospective modelling and simulation of the lithium market. We use a Multi-Agent System (MAS) method so that the individual behaviour of the market players is considered. The results of our work enabled us to conclude in a time-limited risk of a shortage in France, even in the event of a restriction combined with an increase in demand. Regarding the rest of the world, the conclusion is more pessimistic. In that case, the work attempted to search possible alternative supply scenarios to compensate shortages resulting from restrictions. At a methodological level, this work provided a promising test regarding a first application of MAS on the modelling of an industrial mining market (a field of macroeconomics). This methodological choice was motivated by the increasing interest aroused by MAS in this field since the economic crisis, generated by individual behaviour, began in 2009; a crisis, where an important supply shortage may be a future occurrence.