Bank Credit And Agricultural Output In South Africa: A Cobb-Douglas Empirical Analysis

Abstract

We empirically examine the impact of bank credit on agricultural output in South Africa using the Cobb-Douglas production function. We utilize time series data of agricultural output, bank credit, capital accumulation, labour and rainfall from 1970 – 2009. With agricultural output as the dependent variable, we determine OLS estimates of the Cobb-Douglas production function. We observe that bank credit has a positive and significant impact on agricultural output in South Africa. With other factors of production kept constant, a 1% increase in credit results in 0.6% increase in agricultural output. Capital accumulation is also observed to have a positive and significant impact on agricultural output, albeit lower than that of credit, as a 1% increase in capital accumulation results in 0.4% increase in output, other factors kept constant. In terms the Cobb-Douglas elasticities, the combined effect of credit (0.6%) and capital accumulation (0.4%) gives constant returns to scale, meaning that doubling the two inputs will double agricultural output.