Banking Sector Development And Economic Growth In Hong Kong: An Empirical Investigation

Abstract

In this study, we examine the dynamic relationship between bank-based financial development and economic growth in Hong Kong. We attempt to answer one critical question: Does the relationship between bank-based financial development and economic growth in Hong Kong follow a supply-leading or a demand-following response? In other words, which sector drives economic development in Hong Kong – the real sector or the nominal sector? Unlike the majority of previous studies, this study uses the newly developed ARDL-bounds testing approach to examine this linkage. The ARDL-bounds testing approach has numerous advantages over other cointegration techniques, especially when a short time-series dataset is used. In order to test the robustness of the empirical results, two proxies of bank-based financial development have been used; namely: 1) the domestic credit provided by the banking sector as a ratio of GDP and 2) the banks' deposit as a ratio of GDP. Our empirical results show that the relationship between bank-based financial development and economic growth in Hong Kong is sensitive to the proxy used to measure the banking sector development. When domestic credit provided by the banking sector is used as a proxy for bank-based financial development, a distinct supply-leading response is found to prevail. However, when the banks' deposit is used as a proxy for bank development, a demand-following response is found to predominate. These results hold, irrespective of whether the causality is estimated in the short run or in the long run.