Urban Sprawl: Scenario Analyses For Public Policy - Makers

Abstract

This paper examines the likely effects of public-policy on residential development in the Wappinger Creek Watershed within Dutchess County in the Hudson River Valley of New York State. An econometric model is used in combination with Monte Carlo simulation to project residential development in a spatial format using a Geographic Information System (GIS). GIS was used to extract data with bio-geophysical attributes, such as slope, soil, and location characteristics, to project growth trends for residential use of undeveloped land parcels due to changes in public policy. Detailed scenarios present stakeholders the economic, social, and environmental implications of a possible course of action. The results indicate that public-policy can be effectively used to counteract the effects of urban sprawl and increased population.