Aging And Health In South Dakota: Who Will Provide Care?

Abstract

Demographers have long been writing of an aging population. The forthcoming demographic changes predicted include the doubling of the elderly in selected states between 1995 and 2025, and the possibility that the numbers of people over age 85 is expected to reach at least 27 million by 2050. These changes in the population will have a major impact on many sectors of the United States economy, including health care. The effect on health care will include changes in technology to provide needed services to the elderly, access to medications by the elderly, overall service provision to the elderly by health care organizations, as well as reimbursement for services to the elderly. The most dramatic affect on health care is still a couple of decades away. As a result of the demographic trends there will be an insufficient supply of health care workers, while at the same time an increase in the health care needs of the elderly. In South Dakota the working population, those 16 to 64 years of age, is experiencing significant changes. The 16 to 44 year old segment of the population has declined by 10.4%. The 45 to 64 year old segment has increased by 23.5%. These changes in the South Dakota demographics indicate that the working population is aging, while the numbers of individuals available to replace them in the work force (the replacement group) is declining. The data provides an indication that there will be more elderly consuming greater amounts of health care resources and fewer health care professionals, specifically nurses, in South Dakota to provide health care for the elderly.