A Note On The Lack Of Statistical Optimality In The Judgment Of Solomon

Abstract

Solomon, in his most celebrated decision, threatened to cut a baby in half, calculated to elicit such testimony from a claimant that would allow him to identify the real mother and thus grant her custody. Comment from biblical scholars seems to run in the same direction, i.e. Solomon had insight into maternal love. When one of the females offered to withdraw her claim, to save the child, he identified her as the real mother, and this provided the foundation for his Judgment. While the evidentiary trap set by Solomon is genius, his use of the data produced by his trap lacked statistical optimality. The optimality of Solomon’s decision has never been challenged in the literature until now. This challenge is long overdue, considering the fact that this decision has been enshrined as the icon of “Superb decision making” in many cultures including our own. This paper points out that, in view of the testimony of the second woman, the optimal decision would have been to identify the second woman as an imposter. Custody should have been given to the first woman by default.