The Effect Of Tax Rate Change On Dividend Payout

Abstract

President Bush’s 2003 tax cut has revived the topic of dividend policy. Dividend payout depends on many factors, such as earnings, size, and growth in addition to the tax rate. To study the effect of a change in tax rates on dividends, we need to control for other factors that may affect them. Following Fama and French (2001) approach, we divide our sample firms into three different categories characterized by profitability, investment opportunity, and size; and we estimate the averaged dividend forecast errors for four groups in each category. We find size to be the most important factor related to dividends when taxes are not taken into account. In addition, empirical evidence suggests that profitability is the only factor related to dividends when tax rates are included. In other words, the more profitable the firms are, the more likely they pay higher dividends as applicable tax rates decline.