Completion Of A Full Course Of Primary Schooling Among All Children Everywhere By 2015: A Case Of Sub-Saharan Africa

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Robert Wamala


Millennium Development Goals, MDG, Primary Education Completion Rates, Gross Intake Rate to the Last Grade of Primary


Achieving the United Nations Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) remains a major challenge, particularly in developing countries. Specifically, achieving the target of completing a full course of primary schooling among all children, which is goal two, is a major challenge for Sub-Saharan Africa. Though literature consensually suggests that the goal will not be achieved by the 2015 target date, no estimates are provided to support these claims. This study seeks to envisage the situation in Sub-Saharan Africa by the target date using an Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The investigation is based on data sourced from the World Bank publication of education indicators for the period 19702010. The data, comprising 41 observations, represent the total number of new entrants in the last grade of primary education, regardless of age, expressed as a percentage of the total population of the theoretical entrance age to the last grade of primary education. Overall, an upward trend of completion estimates presented in the results shows that progress has been made in this regard. The success attained for the region following the adoption of the MDGs in 2000 demonstrates that the goal can be achieved. The sub-optimal predictions of the situation obtained in the results nevertheless indicate that the achievement certainly will not be realized by the 2015 target date.


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