Rational Prediction Of Future Pension Expense: A Simulation Approach

Abstract

Because future pension expense can have a material influence on a firm’s future earnings, financial analysts are faced with the difficult task of forecasting its impact.  The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a model that can be used with a simulation approach to predict future pension expense and its associated uncertainties.  Because of the importance and complexity of the pension expense component in the estimate of future earnings, a simulation model acts as a powerful analytical tool that can give the analyst greater confidence as to the magnitude and variability of future pension expense.