The Shift-Contagion Effect Of Global Financial Crisis And The European Sovereign Debt Crisis On OECD Countries

Abstract

This article investigates shift-contagion as defined by Forbes and Rigobon (2002) in 16 OECD member economies during most recent financial crisis i.e. global financial crisis (2008-2009) and European sovereign debt crisis (2009-2012), using multivariate asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation model developed by Cappiello et al. (2006). The empirical analyses provide substantial evidence of shifts in the dynamic correlations and hence reconfirm shift-contagion during the global financial crisis that originated from U.S. However, there is no evidence in support of shift-contagion during the European sovereign debt crisis which originated from events in Greece. The results provide important implications for investors and policy makers.