Buy The Rumor, Sell The News! What About Takeover Rumors?

Abstract

This paper attempts to quantify the short-term impact of takeover rumors on target stock prices. The study was conducted on the French stock market between 1997 and 2011 and concerns 200 rumors that appeared in the media (news agencies, newspapers, and Web sites). Our results show that this particular kind of information has a significant impact on the prices of target companies around and after the date of rumor appearance. The best performance of target shares is observed 50 days after the dissemination of the rumors in the media, with an average return of 4%. This performance is mainly explained by three components:  credibility, rumor characteristics, and the anticipated effects of the takeover bid.