Forecasting Performance Of Natural Gas Futures Market: An Assessment Of Recent Data

Abstract

Natural gas has assumed increasing importance in the global energy market. This study evaluates the forecasting performance of futures prices of natural gas in the large market of the U.S. at various time horizons. The results indicate that futures prices are unbiased predictors at the 1-, 6-, and 12- month horizons, but not at the 3- and 9- month horizons. The results further suggest that futures prices of natural gas, although biased at some intervals, significantly outperform naïve forecasts in predicting future movements of spot prices. In addition, the information content of the 1-month ahead futures price proves especially useful as a forecasting device. Policy implications are also discussed.