The Relationship Between Returns And Unexpected Earnings: A Comparison Of Australia And The United States

Abstract

This paper examines a relatively short-term market reaction to unexpected earnings in Australia and the United States (U.S.).  Using data from 1987 to 1998, we test the existence of a short-term market reaction to the release of earnings in both countries. Because accounting standards, stock market characteristics and culture are similar in the two countries, we expect similar market responses to earnings releases.  The results indicate that both the Australian and the U.S. markets react relatively quickly to earnings releases. We also examine the incremental explanatory power of analysts’ forecast errors over the change in earnings per share.  Both the change in earnings per share and analysts’ forecast errors are expected to provide information to the market.  The results from this hypothesis conform to expectations, as both pieces of information are associated with market returns in the two countries.  Finally, we utilize t-tests to examine if the coefficients between Australia and the U.S. are different.  If so, differences in accounting, stock markets, and/or culture alter how information is processed between the two countries.  This hypothesis is not supported.  In sum, the U.S. and Australian stock markets react similarly to the release of unexpected earnings.