State Level Poverty: The Case Of New York

Abstract

This study serves two purposes. First, it demonstrates a method of estimating and projecting annual poverty at sub-national levels. Data are obtained from decennial censuses and form the benchmarks from which poverty is estimated and projected for separate demographic groups. Projections are based upon historical curvilinear trends for each group. The methodology demonstrated can be easily applied in a variety of jurisdictional settings and levels. The second objective is to provide a portrait of poverty by demographic group specifically within the State of New York. The evidence indicates that New York can anticipate a substantial poverty increase over the next decade. There will also be major shifts among demographic groups in their shares of overall State poverty.