Inflation, Output, And Stock Prices: Evidence From Brazil

Abstract

Research in economics and finance documents a puzzling negative relationship between stock returns and inflation rates in markets of industrialized economies.  The present study investigates this relationship for Brazil. We show that the negative relationship between the real stock returns and unexpected inflation persists after purging inflation of the effects of the real economic activity.  The Johansen and Juselius cointegration tests verify a long-run equilibrium between stock prices, general price levels, and the real economic activity. Furthermore, stock prices and general price levels also show a strong long-run equilibrium with the real economic activity and each other.   The findings lend support to Fama’s proxy hypothesis in the long-run.