The Impact Of Discount Rate Choice In Estimating The Workout LGD

Abstract

The workout approach to estimating the loss given default compares the actual value of the recovery flows with the exposure at default to measure the efficacy of the recovery process. One of the main problems related to this approach is the selection of the proper discount rate for evaluating the portfolio. In the literature, there are different solutions proposed, but there is no evidence on the impact of the choice of one of these alternatives on the LGD measurement. This paper looks at a proprietary database for the timeframe 1985-2005, evaluates the impact of the discount rate on the LGD value and studies the main determinants of LGDs computed using different approaches. Even if the explanatory variables are the same, LGDs defined using different discount rates show differences in the percentile distribution that could significantly affect the capital requirements of a financial intermediary.