The Use Of Ohlson's O-Score For Bankruptcy Prediction In Thailand

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Judy Ramage Lawrence
Surapol Pongsatat
Howard Lawrence

Keywords

Bankruptcy, Prediction, Ohlson O-Score, Thailand

Abstract

Business failure is a major concern to all parties involved and can create high costs and heavy losses.  If bankruptcy can be predicted with reasonable accuracy ahead of time, firms can better protect their businesses and can take action to minimize risk and loss of business, and perhaps even prevent the bankruptcy itself.   Bankruptcy prediction in thailand is important because business in thailand has historically operated on a system of trust where one person doing business trusts the other to perform as agreed upon in written and oral contracts.  The threat of bankruptcy tends to diminish that trust and weakens the country's ability to prosper.  While research in bankruptcy has been extensive, there has been only limited research on bankruptcy prediction in thailand.  This study expands on an earlier study by pongsatat, et al (1994) using ohlson's o-score to determine if there a significant difference in ohlson’s o-score as measured by ohlson’s logit analysis model between bankrupt and non-bankrupt firms in thailand.  The results of the independent samples t-test demonstrates that there are significant differences in the population means for one year, two years and three years prior to bankruptcy at the 0.05 level.  Therefore the null hypothesis that there is no difference in the mean of ohlson’s o-score as measured by logit analysis between bankrupt and non-bankrupt firms in thailand is rejected.

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