Prospective Analysis Of The Algerian Economic Growth By 2025: Structural Analysis

Abstract

The aim of this study is to assess the economic growth in Algeria and to determine the set of variable impacting it on different periods. It relies on structural analysis approach based on an investigation method using the software MICMAC (matrix of cross-influence, applied multiplication to a ranking) which was developed by the Institute of Computing Innovation 3IE following the request of Investigation Laboratory on Prospective, Strategy and Organization LIPSOR. The structural analysis can define the key variables of the system (VCS) to catch the most influential variables on economic growth during three time intervals: the near past (direct impact), the actual period (indirect influence) and the long run (potential indirect impact) bearing in mind that the horizon of our study is 2025. The results show the most influential variables ranked during each period as follows: The near past (the direct influence): the economic system, public spending, the regulation, foreign reserves and price of oil barrel, unemployment, inflation and SMEs. The actual period (the indirect influence): the economic system, business climate, FDI, the price of the oil barrel, active population, occupied population, external debt. In addition to other variables having a less influence: unemployment, SMEs, inflation and foreign trade. The long run (potential indirect influence) by 2025: The economic system, public spending, the regulation, foreign reserves, unemployment, FDI, inflation, business climate, currency, occupied population, the price of the oil barrel, saving. Other variables have a moderate influence: national security, capital, exchange rate, financial system, active population, IT, informal sector, SMEs, external trade, external debt, demographic growth and the interest rate.