The Foreign Exchange Risk Premium A Disaggregate Approach

Abstract

This paper re-examines the issue of the existence of a time-varying risk premia in the three foreign exchange markets. By using the theoretical framework developed by Domowitz and Hakkio it relates the risk premium in the foreign exchange market with the heterogeneity across the market participants. The empirical research using a disaggregate survey data base support the importance is supportive of the existence of time-varying risk premia for the British Pound, German Mark and Japanese Yen exchange rates. In particular, we demonstrate that consensus measures of the risk premium mask the existence because of the importance of heterogenous expectations.