The Impact Of Inflation On Financial Sector Development: Experience From Zambia

Abstract

This study examines the impact of inflation on financial development in Zambia during the period between 1980 and 2011. The study attempts to answer two critical questions: 1) Is there a long-run relationship between inflation and financial sector development in Zambia? 2) Does inflation in Zambia have any negative effect on financial sector development? The study uses the recently developed ARDL-bounds testing approach to examine this linkage. In order to address the problem of omission of variable bias, the study incorporates other variables, such as government expenditure, trade volume and GDP per capita in the financial development model, alongside inflation – thereby, creating a simple multivariate model. Using the domestic credit to the private sector as a proxy for financial development, the study finds that there is a long-run relationship between inflation and financial development in Zambia. The study also finds that there is a distinctively negative relationship between inflation and financial development. The results apply, irrespective of whether the model is estimated in the short run or in the long run.