Bank Credit And Agricultural Output In South Africa: Cointegration, Short Run Dynamics And Causality

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the dynamic relationship between bank credit and agricultural output in South Africa using time series data from 1970 to 2011. Using the Johansen cointegration test, we observe bank credit and agricultural output to be cointegrated. In the long run we find credit and capital formation to have significant positive impact on agricultural output. Employing an ECM, we find that, in the short run, bank credit has a negative impact on agricultural output reflecting the uncertainties of institutional credit in South Africa. However, the ECM coefficient shows that agricultural GDP rapidly adjusts to short term disturbances indicating that there is no room for tardiness in the agricultural sector.  The absence of institutional credit will be immediately replaced by availability of other credit facilities from non-institutional sources so that there is no room for possible non-application of intermediate inputs.  Conventional Granger causality tests show uni-directional causality from (1) bank credit to agricultural output growth; (2) agricultural output to capital formation; (3) agricultural output to labour; (4) capital formation to credit; (5) capital formation to labour, and a bi-directional causality between credit and labour. Noteworthy is that for the agricultural sector the direction of causality is from finance to growth, i.e., supply-leading, whereas at the macroeconomic level the direction of causality is from economic growth to finance, i.e., demand-leading.