County Poverty: The Case Of Los Angeles

Abstract

This study serves two purposes. First, it demonstrates a method of estimating and projecting annual poverty at the sub-national level. Data obtained from decennial censuses provide the benchmarks from which poverty is estimated and projected for various demographic groups. Projections are based upon curvilinear trends both of rates and of counts for each group. The methodology can be easily applied in a variety of jurisdictional settings and levels. The second objective is to provide a specific portrait of poverty by demographic group within the County of Los Angeles. The evidence indicates a substantial increase over the next decade both in the incidence of poverty and in the number of impoverished residents. The primary source of County poverty is the growth in its Hispanic community.