County Poverty: The Case Of Sacramento

Abstract

This study serves two purposes.  First, it demonstrates a method of estimating and projecting annual poverty at sub-national levels.  Data are obtained from decennial censuses to form the benchmarks from which poverty is estimated and projected for various demographic groups.  Projections are based upon historical curvilinear trends for each group.  The methodology can be easily applied in a variety of jurisdictional settings and levels.

The second objective is to provide a specific portrait of poverty by demographic group within the County of Sacramento in the State of California.  The evidence indicates that, by the end of the decade, the County poverty rate will rise to 16% and the number of poor persons will expand to 216 thousand.  There will be large differences among the various demographic groups in their rates of change.